The DOW

With just a couple of days left in 2024, the over leveraged U. S. stock market is showing signs that the party is about to end. Its not just the bad Price to Earning Ratios and the many Zombie companies that have never earned positive returns; it is a labor market in continuing decline because the vast majority of the American Public is not just broke, they are still paying for Christmas 2023. The American Consumer is in the ditch and sales of many companies, both large and small, is going further into decline as layoffs are forecast to accelerate toward Inauguration Day. So, what does this market correction look like?? The concensus of many market analysts is over 50% and possibly as nasty as 90%. 50% would be disastrous…90% would be an apocalypse. I was always particularly interested in the Depression of the 1930’s because MY PARENTS BOTH LIVED IT. Their very thinking was affected by that special degree of trauma. As a young builder, I was fortunate to work in BelAir and Beverly Hills. The jobs were lucrative but, most of my elderly clientele had very high expectations and they wanted to know how much you paid for paint. I was puzzled that these people – in their multi-million dollar homes – had baskets on their massive kitchen counters with McDonald’s Catsup, Mustard, Mayonnaise, Relish, Stawberry and Grape Jelly and even a large stack of brown napkins! Not four or five of my clients but, perhaps ten or twelve had these large caches of freebie condiments on their marble countertops. This was the precursor of the Body Lotions and Soap Bars that they began to swipe in the 90’s. While staying at the homes of my wealthier friends, they have bathroom drawers full of soap bars, Shampoo and Body Lotions from all of the most expensive Hotels. In one fell swoop, they let you know the caliber of Hotels that they frequent and the lengths to which they will steal. They seem not to even know that it is wrong. THAT…is what Depression does to a society and an individual. This time around, we do have a better prospect of surviving. President Trump will inherit a great mess from which he can not save us. NO ONE COULD. However, the optimism that the majority of the United States now possesses – that we will unite and work and help each other – can go a very long way to subduing the disastrous affects of diminished resources for food, sports and entertainment. People will come together in a way that will not just mitigate the tide of poverty; it will strengthen the soul, grow widespread empathy and quell our materialistic bent while spreading spiritualism. The Depression of the 20th Century was devastating to Humanity for years. Not so, this time. We have reason to be Optimistic. BELIEVE IT OR NOT, BETTER DAYS ARE AHEAD!